A familiar storyline will once again grace the NFL Playoffs this season. The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship on Sunday Night, as they meet in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years. It’s no secret that the Chiefs have been the Bills’ biggest hurdle to a highly-coveted Super Bowl appearance, but things could finally be different this time. Let’s take a look at game predictions, best bet and player props to look out for Bills vs. Chiefs on January 26.
AFC Championship – Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions
Betting Odds
Moneyline: Bills (+108) vs. Chiefs (-126)
Spread: Bills (+1.5) vs. Chiefs (-1.5)
Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110)/Under 47.5 (-110)
Game Prediction
Bills 24, Chiefs 21
The Bills are 0-3 against the Chiefs in their recent playoff meetings, but hopefully, the fourth time can be the charm for this formidable team. The Bills survived against the Ravens last week, getting some help from Mark Andrews’ brutal drop on a 2-point conversion to win 27-25. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had another uninspiring win to advance against the Texans, a game where they were outgained on offense by 124 yards.
Despite clinching top seed in the AFC once again, the Chiefs have looked far from their best all season. Patrick Mahomes had the worst season of his career statistically, despite the Chiefs achieving a 15-2 record. From blocked kicks to last-gasp fumble recoveries, Kansas City found some extraordinary ways to win games this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have been a powerhouse all year, ranking second in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. They also accounted for one of the Chiefs’ two losses, beating them 30-21 in Week 11. Josh Allen is currently playing the best football of his career, especially in terms of game management and minimizing turnovers. Allen threw a career-low six interceptions this year and has only one in his last seven games.
The Bills ran the ball well against the Ravens top-ranked rush defense last week, and I expect a similar approach on Sunday. Taking down the Chiefs in Arrowhead is no easy feat, but Allen is playing at an elite level and has a massive chip on his shoulder. While it’s risky to bet against Mahomes, it’s simply a gut feeling that this could be Buffalo’s year.
Player Prop Bets
Travis Kelce over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Despite being in the twilight of his career, Travis Kelce is a different beast in the playoffs. The veteran tight end has had 14 consecutive playoff games with 70+ receiving yards, and I’m betting on him to continue that streak on Sunday. Kelce was the lone bright spot for the Chiefs offense against the Texans, catching seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown. Considering Mahomes only threw for 177 yards, Kelce will continue operating as his go-to target. Kelce has averaged ten targets and nearly 100 receiving yards against the Bills in the playoffs, while also scoring five touchdowns in their three previous encounters.
Josh Allen over 283.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114)
If the Bills are going to win on Sunday, it’s going to be directly in the hands of their dual-threat MVP candidate. Allen will need to make plays both in the air and on the ground against a stingy Chiefs defense. Allen cleared this line in nine games this season, including against the Chiefs where he totaled 317 scrimmage yards. He also rushed for a spectacular 26-yard TD on 4th down in that game to seal the victory for Buffalo. Despite rushing for only 20 yards against the Ravens, expect Allen to utilize his legs more on Sunday. A Chris Jones-led Chiefs defense gets pressure at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL this season.
Main Photo: [Mark J. Rebilas] – USA Today Sports
